blueUkraine

© Vox
The resistance

Wishful thinking has the upper hand in the battle to shape Western perceptions of the state of war in Ukraine.

Sympathy for the outnumbered and outgunned defenders of Kyiv has led to the exaggeration of Russian setbacks, misunderstanding of Russian strategy, and even baseless claims from amateur psychoanalysts that Putin has lost his mind.

A more sober assay shows that Russian federation may have sought a knockout blow, only always had well-laid plans for follow-on assaults if its initial moves proved insufficient.

The world has underestimated Putin before and those mistakes have led, in office, to this tragedy in Ukraine.

We must exist clear-eyed now that the war is underway. Yet even the professionals at the Pentagon are letting sympathy cloud their judgement.

Just two days into Russia's invasion of Ukraine, U.S. Department of Defence briefers were quick to claim that failing to accept Kyiv in the opening days of the war amoun ted to a serious setback. DoD briefers unsaid that Russian federation's offensive was well backside schedule or had fifty-fifty failed because the capital letter had not fallen.

But U.S. leaders should have learned to restrain their hopes after their catastrophic withdrawal from Afghanistan. One time again, U.S. and Western officials are falling into the trap of failing to sympathise the enemy and his objectives.

Map Ukraine

© Unknown
Russian invasion plan

Allegedly, Putin believed that the Ukrainian government would collapse in one case Russian troops crossed the frontier and pushed to Kyiv, and that the operation has failed considering the Ukrainian government remains in identify. Putin certainly hoped for a swift victory, but he conspicuously was non relying on his opening salvo equally the only plan for success.

Rather, the Russian military was prepared to have the country past force if a swift decapitation strike fell short. This kind of plan should be familiar to Americans who retrieve the 2003 invasion of Iraq. In the first hours of the state of war, the U.S. Air Force launched its 'shock and awe' entrada in an attempt to kill Saddam Hussein and other key leaders and bring down the government. Saddam survived, but the U.Southward. military was fully prepared to follow up with a basis attack.

A look at the Russian military offensive demonstrates there was a plan for a total-calibration invasion, which Russia is now executing.

Conventional, mechanized warfare is a fourth dimension and resource consuming enterprise, and an performance of this telescopic isn't cobbled together in days.

The Russian offensive is taking identify on iv separate fronts. On a 5th front end, in eastern Ukraine, which Putin declared independent concluding week, Russian forces are tying down Ukrainian troops that are needed elsewhere.

The bulk of the Russian forces are advancing southward from Belarus to Kyiv

Russian advance forces, including air, mobile and reconnaissance troops, have been engaged with Ukrainian troops exterior of Kyiv since the first of the state of war. A massive column of Russian troops, estimated at over 40 miles long, is simply 20 miles north of Kyiv, and is probable assembling to surround the capital.

If Russian forces tin can take Kyiv and push southward to link upwards with forces on the Crimean front, thus splitting Ukraine in two, information technology would be a major accident to the Zelensky government.

What matters more than a handful of setbacks is that Russian forces have pushed 70 miles into contested terrain in less than a week and are on the outskirts of the uppercase.

Ukraine map convoy

© AP

This is not a sign of a disorganized, poorly assembled, and failed offensive.

The southward push from Belarus to Kyiv is supported past some other Russian cavalcade, launched from the east in the vicinity of Kursk.

If this column can link upwards with Russian troops nigh Kyiv, information technology will envelop Ukrainian forces in most of Chernihiv and Sumy provinces, depriving the Ukrainian military of much needed soldiers and state of war cloth needed elsewhere, and cutting off the government from 2 northern provinces.

Further due east, Russian forces accept launched a wide offensive aimed at Kharkiv, Ukraine's 2d largest metropolis, which is now under siege.

In the south, Russian forces, supported past amphibious assaults from the Sea of Azov, have poured into Ukraine from Crimea.

On this forepart, Russian forces have branched out along two master axes, one northwest forth the Pivdennyi Buh River, and another northeast along the coast and inland towards the Donbas region, which Russia declared independent before long earlier the invasion. If Russian columns from either southern front end can link up with forces farther north, they would cut off many Ukrainian troops from reinforcement — ane of the two columns has already advanced roughly 160 miles.

Russian generals have often called to bypass towns and cities that are putting up potent opposition and isolating them to deal with subsequently.

There are reports that Russian forces have escalated attacks on civilians, particularly in Kharkiv. At the moment, the arms and rocket attacks there accept been limited, mayhap to send a message to the citizens as a warning of what may come.

Putin appears to want to take Ukraine intact, only volition not hesitate to increase the level of brutality if needed.

The systematic nature of the Russian assault is at odds with speculation that Putin has lost command of his senses. Nobody knows for sure, merely Putin's actions appear to be that of a cold and calculating adversary. Dismissing his conclusion to invade Ukraine as a class of madness is effectively an alibi to ignore Putin's likely motivations and future actions.

Strategically, Putin's accelerate on Ukraine began well over a decade ago, when he invaded and Balkanized Georgia by recognizing the Kremlin's puppet regimes in the regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

Map Ukraine

© Unknown

In 2014, Putin occupied and annexed the strategic Ukrainian region of Crimea, which served as a launchpad for the current invasion. Putin paid footling toll for either activeness. The The states and Europe imposed limited sanctions simply continued to appoint with him on the Iranian nuclear bargain and other tiptop issues.

Today, Putin has calculated that taking Ukraine past force is in his and Russia's involvement. He no doubt anticipated that the West would impose diplomatic and economic sanctions, which U.S. and European leaders threatened beforehand.

Putin may have miscalculated Ukrainian resistance and the intensity of the West'due south opposition, but it doesn't mean he is crazy, or didn't consider the possibilities and chose to invade regardless. It remains to be seen if Putin's plan will succeed or neglect, but what is articulate is that there was a plan to invade Ukraine in forcefulness, and that plan has been executed since day ane.

Ukrainian troops are putting upward a valiant fight facing long odds and difficult atmospheric condition. Russia holds most if not all of the advantages. It tin, and has, attacked Ukraine from three unlike directions. The Russian military machine holds a decided reward in manpower, every bit well every bit air, naval and armor superiority. Information technology has vast resources to draw on. While Ukraine has the support of much of the international community, which is providing weapons, Ukraine is fighting lonely.

Assertive Russian federation'due south set on is going poorly may make us feel better but is at odds with the facts.

Nosotros cannot assist Ukraine if we cannot be honest most its predicament.

About the Author:
Neb Roggio is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defence force of Democracies and editor of FDD's Long war Journal. From 1991 to 1997, Roggio served as a signalman and infantryman in the U.S. Regular army and New Jersey National Guard